Commanders vs. Eagles Odds
The Eagles went 24-0 in the first half in Week 3 in Washington and won 24-8, easily covering the -5.5 spread despite not scoring a single point in the second half. That lackluster second half also helped the under (47.5) to money without much sweat.
Can we expect a similar result this time? Let’s find a Commanders vs. Eagles pick.
Commanders vs Eagles Matchup Analysis
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Commanders vs. Eagles DVOA breakdown
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense are second in points per game (28.1) and fourth in DVOA, but Washington is one of the tougher defenses they will face.
At the first meeting between these teams, the Commanders held the Eagles at a season-low of 72 noisy courtyards. Hurts has been maintained at his lowest yards-per-carry average (2.22) and second-lowest rushing total (20 yards) this season.
Despite passing plays from 45, 44, and 31 yards to DeVonta Smith and a 40-yarder to Grant Calcaterra, the Eagles managed to hang just 24 points on the scoreboard. They have had six tacks, a season high, and gone goalless in eight of their 12 trips (except for the last possession when the clock ran out).
Ron Rivera’s defense is second against run and third in pressure rate (26.6%, per Pro Football Reference). This is a recipe for success against a Philadelphia team that averages the second highest rush attempts per game (34.5) and sees Hurts’ passer rating drop from 119.6 in a clean pocket to 76.7 under pressure. Washington’s pass defense has improved since cornerback William Jackson III (who has since been traded) was benched in Week 5.
Corresponding RBsDM.comthe Washington defense is sixth in pass success rate (42.5%) and ninth in expected dropback points per game (-0.037) since Week 5. It was 17th in pass success rate (45.1%) and 27th in pass rate Dropback EPA per game (0.199) in weeks 1-4.
Commanders +11.5 | Eagle -11.5
When the commanders have the ball, they face one of the top three Eagles defenses that kept them scoreless for the first 58 minutes and five seconds of the first meeting.
Washington was quarterbacked by Carson Wentz in this instance, but it’s not like Taylor Heinicke is a better match. The Eagles are eighth in pressure rating and Heinicke’s passer rating under pressure (36.6) ranks 38th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks, per PFF. The Eagles are playing at the ninth-highest rate in the league and Washington is 27th in yards per goal against men (6.7) since Heinicke took over in Week 7 (they are sixth against men over the same span).
Heinicke loves feeding the ball to Terry McLaurin, who has drawn 28.4% of his goals and accounted for 38.5% of his passing yardage, but the Eagles are second in DVOA against No. 1 wide receiver, per outsiders in football. McLaurin has been hitting some familiar corners lately, but this is still a tough matchup against Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who are fourth and 14th in the PFF coverage class, respectively, under 114 qualifying corners. Thanks to these outside lugs, the Eagles have had the lowest rate of explosive passes of 16 yards or more (8.5%).
The Eagles are vulnerable on the ground, but the rank 27 Commanders’ Rushing Attack is not guaranteed to be able to take advantage of them. Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. were disappointing on the ground, averaging just 3.51 yards per carry on 156 carries.
Washington’s leading tackle this game is Curtis Samuel, who has carried 18 times for 122 yards (6.22 YPC). Samuel also expects to see high-impact stares from the slot as the Eagles miss nickel starting corner Avonte Maddox (hamstring).
Regardless of whether the commanders can run or not, they will try to shorten the game as much as possible. Per outsiders in footballthey rank 31st on situation-neutral pace (33.45 seconds) and 24th on average seconds between games in the first half (29.50).
Both defenses pair well with opposing offenses here, giving this game all the makings of a dark, low-scoring game NFC East match.
According to our Action Labs data, outdoor divisional unders are 57-34 (63%) since the start of last season.
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